Ether as a global reserve currency

The US dollar’s supremacy and global reserve currency status are in decline caused by many fiscal, monetary and foreign policy changes. Not least massive amounts of government debt creation and forced seizure of central bank foreign reserves (held as treasury bills).

If the US government can decide to seize assets of another nation-state through executive order, then you can bet they can do it to anybody. No doubt, the ability existed before but was never exercised directly.

What will other central banks do next? First, they will most likely increase their gold reserves and reduce their exposure to foreign fiat currency.

Risk-Free Rate, LIBOR etc

The risk-free rate is usually the rate of return you can get for practically zero risk. The interest rate can be thought of as a floor return on capital. For example, if you can get a 2% on a 10-year treasure bill, why would you lend to someone riskier for any lower than that. You will often see mortgages and credit cards tracking some base rate. The difference between the base rate and the rate the borrower pays is the risk premium associated with that borrower.

Given the recent policy changes by the US government, it would appear that treasury bills are riskier than previously thought. Now there is the added risk of asset seizure.

Staking Ether with 4% yeild

A risk-free investment returning a 4% yield is looking pretty compelling. Ether is still considered by many to be a risky investment due to price fluctuations against other currencies. However, as the stability of Ether is proven over time, the asset’s riskiness will trend downwards.

Deep Liquidity Pool

As riskiness trends downwards, the returns on offer become more attractive, leading to further trust in Ether and Ethereum. As more participants use the Ethereum network, the liquidity available will increase, making it more useful as a base currency. These risk-free returns will act as a gravity well and draw more capital into ethereum.

Summary

Because of Ethers utility as a store of value and as a risk-free capital asset, it will draw people into using the Ethereum network. As more people use the Ethereum network, gas is required to participate, further adding demand onto Ether. Eventually, Ether will replace the US dollar as the global reserve asset as Ether becomes the medium of exchange most people are willing to use.

References

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/risk-freerate.asp

https://www.lynalden.com/march-2022-newsletter/

https://www.wsj.com/articles/if-currency-reserves-arent-really-money-the-world-is-in-for-a-shock-11646311306

Egypt run out of dollars (https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/egyptian-pound-drops-10-after-ukraine-war-prompts-dollar-flight-2022-03-21/)

https://newsletter.banklesshq.com/p/ether-a-new-model-for-money

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